Hevizi uti Stadion · Analysis updated 05:44 UTC
III. Kerületi TUE vs BKV Előre Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.58 expected goals for III. Kerületi TUE and 0.54 for BKV Előre, a combined total of 3.12. That distribution gives III. Kerületi TUE the largest share of the 1X2 market at 81%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 81% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
III. Kerületi TUE win
81.1% probability
Expected goals
2.58 – 0.54
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
III. Kerületi TUE home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
BKV Előre away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
94%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
19%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–014.6%
- 3–012.6%
- 1–011.4%
- 4–08.1%
- 2–18.0%
Recent form
III. Kerületi TUE
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Gyulai Termál · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-18T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Újpest II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Szolnoki MAV FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Honvéd II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Szegedi VSE · 1-0 (W)
BKV Előre
- 2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Dabas · 5-4 (W)
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Szeged-Csanád II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Vasas II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bekescsaba 1912 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sándorfalva · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-09T15:30:00.000Z · III. Kerületi TUE 2-0 BKV Előre (NB III - Southeast)
- 2026-05-10T15:00:00.000Z · III. Kerületi TUE 3-1 BKV Előre (NB III - Southeast)
- 2025-10-26T12:00:00.000Z · III. Kerületi TUE 3-2 BKV Előre (NB III - Southeast)
- 2025-08-23T09:00:00.000Z · III. Kerületi TUE 5-0 BKV Előre (Magyar Kupa)
- 2021-04-25T15:00:00.000Z · III. Kerületi TUE 0-1 BKV Előre (NB III - Southwest)
- 2020-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · III. Kerületi TUE 1-0 BKV Előre (NB III - Southwest)
- 2019-09-15T14:00:00.000Z · III. Kerületi TUE 1-1 BKV Előre (NB III - Southwest)
NB III - Southeast table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gyulai Termál | 13 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 39 |
| 2 | ESMTK | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 30 |
| 3 | III. Kerületi TUE | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 26 |
| 4 | Szeged-Csanád II | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 23 |
| 5 | Csepel | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 20 |
| 6 | Vasas II | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 19 |
| 7 | Újpest II | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 19 |
| 8 | Monori Se | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 9 | Dabas | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -12 | 15 |
| 10 | Bekescsaba 1912 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 14 |
| 11 | Szolnoki MAV FC | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 14 |
| 12 | Honvéd II | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -2 | 12 |
| 13 | Sándorfalva | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -22 | 11 |
| 14 | Hódmezővásárhely | 13 | 1 | 6 | 6 | -12 | 9 |
| 15 | Szegedi VSE | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -19 | 9 |
| 16 | BKV Előre | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -30 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is III. Kerületi TUE win, at 81.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 81% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.