Hevizi uti Stadion · Analysis updated 01:50 UTC
III. Kerületi TUE vs ESMTK Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.29 expected goals for III. Kerületi TUE and 0.86 for ESMTK, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives III. Kerületi TUE the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws roughly 31% of the time.
Model pick
III. Kerületi TUE to Win
69.4% probability
Expected goals
2.29 – 0.86
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
31%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.2%
- 1–09.8%
- 2–19.7%
- 3–08.5%
- 1–18.5%
Why the model likes this
ESMTK away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates III. Kerületi TUE to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 69% / 18% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.29 goals for III. Kerületi TUE and 0.86 for ESMTK, a combined 3.15 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 61% and both teams to score at 52%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Recent form
III. Kerületi TUE
ESMTK
- 2026-08-12T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Csepel · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-09T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Hódmezővásárhely · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Monori Se · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-24T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Tiszaföldvár · 8-0 (W)
- 2026-05-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs III. Kerületi TUE · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
NB III - Southeast table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gyulai Termál | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 12 |
| 2 | III. Kerületi TUE | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 12 |
| 3 | Szeged-Csanád II | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 4 | Szolnoki MAV FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| 5 | Dabas | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 6 |
| 6 | Csepel | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 7 | Újpest II | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 8 | ESMTK | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Monori Se | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 10 | Sándorfalva | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -12 | 3 |
| 11 | Vasas II | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 12 | Bekescsaba 1912 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 2 |
| 13 | Hódmezővásárhely | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -6 | 2 |
| 14 | Honvéd II | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 | Szegedi VSE | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 16 | BKV Előre | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.