III. Kerületi TUE vs ESMTK Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for III. Kerületi TUE and 1.78 for ESMTK, a combined total of 3.60. That distribution gives III. Kerületi TUE the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

61.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.83 – 1.78

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

III. Kerületi TUE home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
ESMTK away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates III. Kerületi TUE to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 22% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.83 goals for III. Kerületi TUE and 1.78 for ESMTK, a combined 3.60 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

III. Kerületi TUE win40%

Draw22%

ESMTK win38%

Double chance 1X

62%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

60%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals70%

Over 3.5 goals49%

Both teams to score70%

Correct score

1–18.9%
2–18.1%
1–27.9%
2–27.2%
1–05.0%

Recent form

III. Kerületi TUE

2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Gyulai Termál · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-18T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Újpest II · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Szolnoki MAV FC · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-04T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Honvéd II · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Szegedi VSE · 1-0 (W)

ESMTK

2026-08-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Sándorfalva · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-22T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Algyő SK · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-16T15:30:00.000Z · A vs BKV Előre · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-12T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Csepel · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-09T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Hódmezővásárhely · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

NB III - Southeast table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Gyulai Termál	13	13	0	0	34	39
2	ESMTK	12	8	3	1	21	27
3	III. Kerületi TUE	13	8	2	3	10	26
4	Szeged-Csanád II	13	6	5	2	8	23
5	Csepel	13	5	5	3	7	20
6	Vasas II	13	5	4	4	11	19
7	Újpest II	12	5	4	3	10	19
8	Monori Se	13	3	6	4	-1	15
9	Dabas	13	4	3	6	-12	15
10	Bekescsaba 1912	13	3	5	5	0	14
11	Szolnoki MAV FC	13	3	5	5	-3	14
12	Honvéd II	13	3	3	7	-2	12
13	Sándorfalva	13	3	2	8	-22	11
14	Hódmezővásárhely	13	1	6	6	-12	9
15	BKV Előre	12	2	2	8	-28	8
16	Szegedi VSE	12	1	3	8	-21	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 61.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.