Hevizi uti Stadion · Analysis updated 09:09 UTC
III. Kerületi TUE vs Hódmezővásárhely Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for III. Kerületi TUE and 0.57 for Hódmezővásárhely, a combined total of 2.31. That distribution gives III. Kerületi TUE the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
III. Kerületi TUE win
66.0% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 0.57
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
III. Kerületi TUE home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hódmezővásárhely away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates III. Kerületi TUE to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 22% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for III. Kerületi TUE and 0.57 for Hódmezővásárhely, a combined 2.31 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.3%
- 2–015.1%
- 0–09.9%
- 1–19.8%
- 3–08.8%
Recent form
III. Kerületi TUE
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Gyulai Termál · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-18T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Újpest II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Szolnoki MAV FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Honvéd II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Szegedi VSE · 1-0 (W)
Hódmezővásárhely
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Szeged-Csanád II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Vasas II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bekescsaba 1912 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sándorfalva · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T15:30:00.000Z · A vs BKV Előre · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
NB III - Southeast table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gyulai Termál | 13 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 39 |
| 2 | ESMTK | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 30 |
| 3 | III. Kerületi TUE | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 26 |
| 4 | Szeged-Csanád II | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 23 |
| 5 | Csepel | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 20 |
| 6 | Vasas II | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 19 |
| 7 | Újpest II | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 19 |
| 8 | Monori Se | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 9 | Dabas | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -12 | 15 |
| 10 | Bekescsaba 1912 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 14 |
| 11 | Szolnoki MAV FC | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 14 |
| 12 | Honvéd II | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -2 | 12 |
| 13 | Sándorfalva | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -22 | 11 |
| 14 | Hódmezővásárhely | 13 | 1 | 6 | 6 | -12 | 9 |
| 15 | Szegedi VSE | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -19 | 9 |
| 16 | BKV Előre | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -30 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is III. Kerületi TUE win, at 66.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.