Hevizi uti Stadion · Analysis updated 08:30 UTC
III. Kerületi TUE vs Monori Se Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for III. Kerületi TUE and 1.28 for Monori Se, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives III. Kerületi TUE the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
III. Kerületi TUE win
45.0% probability
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
III. Kerületi TUE home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Monori Se away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates III. Kerületi TUE to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 25% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.60 goals for III. Kerületi TUE and 1.28 for Monori Se, a combined 2.88 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–09.0%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–07.2%
Recent form
III. Kerületi TUE
- 2026-10-18T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Újpest II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Szolnoki MAV FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Honvéd II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Szegedi VSE · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dabas · 1-0 (W)
Monori Se
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Gyulai Termál · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Bekescsaba 1912 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Újpest II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sándorfalva · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Szolnoki MAV FC · 4-4 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
NB III - Southeast table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gyulai Termál | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 36 |
| 2 | ESMTK | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 27 |
| 3 | III. Kerületi TUE | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 26 |
| 4 | Szeged-Csanád II | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 20 |
| 5 | Újpest II | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 19 |
| 6 | Vasas II | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 18 |
| 7 | Csepel | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 17 |
| 8 | Bekescsaba 1912 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 14 |
| 9 | Monori Se | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 10 | Szolnoki MAV FC | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 11 | Dabas | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 14 |
| 12 | Honvéd II | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -2 | 11 |
| 13 | Sándorfalva | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -22 | 10 |
| 14 | Hódmezővásárhely | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -12 | 8 |
| 15 | BKV Előre | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -28 | 8 |
| 16 | Szegedi VSE | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -21 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is III. Kerületi TUE win, at 45.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.