Ijsselmeervogels vs Spakenburg Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.68 expected goals for Ijsselmeervogels and 1.05 for Spakenburg, a combined total of 2.72. That distribution gives Ijsselmeervogels the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Ijsselmeervogels win

52.0% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.68 – 1.05

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Ijsselmeervogels home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Spakenburg away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ijsselmeervogels to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 24% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.68 goals for Ijsselmeervogels and 1.05 for Spakenburg, a combined 2.72 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Ijsselmeervogels win52%

Draw24%

Spakenburg win24%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

48%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–111.5%
1–011.0%
2–19.7%
2–09.2%
0–16.9%

Recent form

Ijsselmeervogels

2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Katwijk · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs GVVV Veenendaal · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Koninklijke HFC · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · A vs HHC · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rijnsburgse Boys · 3-0 (W)

Spakenburg

2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Amsterdam · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs De Treffers · 0-5 (L)
2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs RKAV Volendam · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Rotterdam II · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Almere City II · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tweede Divisie table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Quick Boys	11	9	1	1	24	28
2	De Treffers	11	6	4	1	16	22
3	Ijsselmeervogels	11	7	1	3	6	22
4	Kozakken Boys	11	6	3	2	12	21
5	HHC	11	6	3	2	5	21
6	Barendrecht	11	6	2	3	3	20
7	GVVV Veenendaal	11	6	0	5	4	18
8	RKAV Volendam	11	5	3	3	1	18
9	Spakenburg	11	4	2	5	-4	14
10	Katwijk	11	4	2	5	-7	14
11	Sparta Rotterdam II	11	3	4	4	4	13
12	Almere City II	11	4	1	6	1	13
13	AFC Amsterdam	11	4	1	6	-4	13
14	Rijnsburgse Boys	11	4	1	6	-10	13
15	Hoek	11	2	4	5	-6	10
16	Koninklijke HFC	11	2	3	6	-8	9
17	Kloetinge	11	1	4	6	-13	7
18	ROHDA Raalte	11	0	1	10	-24	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Ijsselmeervogels win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.

A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.