IK brage vs Orebro SK Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.87 expected goals for IK brage and 1.38 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives IK brage the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

IK brage win

48.9% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.87 – 1.38

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

IK brage home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Orebro SK away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates IK brage to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 23% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.87 goals for IK brage and 1.38 for Orebro SK, a combined 3.25 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

IK brage win49%

Draw23%

Orebro SK win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

51%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score63%

Correct score

1–110.0%
2–19.3%
1–07.2%
1–26.9%
2–06.8%

Recent form

IK brage

2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Varbergs BoIS FC · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sandviken · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-10T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ostersunds FK · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs GIF Sundsvall · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Falkenbergs FF · 1-4 (L)

Orebro SK

2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sandviken · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs United Nordic · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-10T17:00:00.000Z · A vs GIF Sundsvall · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-07T17:05:00.000Z · H vs Ostersunds FK · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-01T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Helsingborg · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Superettan table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	IFK Norrkoping	27	18	5	4	36	59
2	Falkenbergs FF	27	15	6	6	15	51
3	Ostersunds FK	28	12	12	4	12	48
4	Varbergs BoIS FC	27	13	7	7	11	46
5	Landskrona BoIS	27	12	7	8	13	43
6	Oddevold	28	11	9	8	11	42
7	Osters IF	28	13	3	12	1	42
8	United Nordic	28	10	9	9	-6	39
9	Sandviken	28	10	8	10	6	38
10	Ljungskile SK	27	8	8	11	-1	32
11	IFK Varnamo	28	9	5	14	-13	32
12	Helsingborg	27	8	7	12	-11	31
13	Norrby IF	27	5	12	10	-6	27
14	IK brage	28	6	8	14	-10	26
15	Orebro SK	27	5	11	11	-12	26
16	GIF Sundsvall	28	6	1	21	-46	19

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is IK brage win, at 48.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.