Mobolaji Johnson Arena · Analysis updated 20:41 UTC
Ikorodu City vs Barau FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.27 expected goals for Ikorodu City and 1.16 for Barau FC, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives Ikorodu City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.2% probability
Expected goals
1.27 – 1.16
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ikorodu City home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Barau FC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ikorodu City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 27% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.27 goals for Ikorodu City and 1.16 for Barau FC, a combined 2.43 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.0%
- 1–011.1%
- 0–110.2%
- 0–08.8%
- 2–18.2%
Recent form
Ikorodu City
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Niger Tornadoes · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kwara United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Rivers United · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Lagos · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Enugu Rangers · 2-0 (W)
Barau FC
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Rivers United · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Enugu Rangers · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Bendel Insurance · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Lagos · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-23T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Abia Warriors · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Federation Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Kanemi Warriors | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 |
| 2 | Nasarawa United | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| 3 | Wikki Tourist | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Barau FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Sokoto | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Ikorodu City | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Plateau United | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | Flight FC Gboko | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 9 | Bendel Insurance | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 10 | Rivers United | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Enyimba | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | Bida Lions | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Sunshine Stars U19 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 14 | Akwa United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 15 | Ingas | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 16 | Mighty Jets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | Shooting Stars | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | De Sapele Lion | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | Basira | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 20 | Kada Warriors | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 21 | Adamawa United | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 22 | Enugu Rangers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 23 | Warinje | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 24 | Abakaliki | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Gombe United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 26 | Kogi | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | Kwara United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 28 | Bayelsa United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 29 | Crown FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 30 | Jigawa Golden Stars | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 31 | Warri Wolves | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 32 | Ejigbo City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.