· Analysis updated 16:08 UTC
Ilbirs vs Dordoi Bishkek Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.37 expected goals for Ilbirs and 1.47 for Dordoi Bishkek, a combined total of 2.84. That distribution gives Dordoi Bishkek the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.7% probability
Expected goals
1.37 – 1.47
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ilbirs home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dordoi Bishkek to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 35% / 25% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.37 goals for Ilbirs and 1.47 for Dordoi Bishkek, a combined 2.84 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 54% and both teams to score at 58%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 1–28.6%
- 0–18.6%
- 2–18.1%
- 1–08.0%
Recent form
Ilbirs
- 2026-09-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Asiagoal · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bishkek City · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Muras United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-15T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Dordoi Bishkek · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-11T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Asia Talas · 1-1 (D)
Dordoi Bishkek
- 2026-09-07T14:00:00.000Z · H vs OshMU Aldier · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Abdish-Ata · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Alay · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-15T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Ilbirs · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wathba · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bars | 24 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 32 | 49 |
| 2 | Asia Talas | 25 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 19 | 49 |
| 3 | Alga | 24 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 19 | 49 |
| 4 | Ozgon | 23 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 48 |
| 5 | Muras United | 23 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 27 | 47 |
| 6 | Alay | 25 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 40 |
| 7 | Talant | 25 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 33 |
| 8 | Bishkek City | 25 | 7 | 9 | 9 | -3 | 30 |
| 9 | Neftchi | 25 | 9 | 3 | 13 | -9 | 30 |
| 10 | Dordoi Bishkek | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 3 | 29 |
| 11 | Ilbirs | 24 | 6 | 10 | 8 | -8 | 28 |
| 12 | Toktogul | 24 | 8 | 4 | 12 | -11 | 28 |
| 13 | OshMU Aldier | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | -12 | 28 |
| 14 | Asiagoal | 25 | 4 | 9 | 12 | -14 | 21 |
| 15 | Abdish-Ata | 24 | 3 | 6 | 15 | -27 | 15 |
| 16 | Kara-Balta | 25 | 1 | 6 | 18 | -48 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.