· Analysis updated 06:07 UTC
Iliria Fushë-Krujë vs Apolonia Fier Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Iliria Fushë-Krujë and 0.92 for Apolonia Fier, a combined total of 2.07. That distribution gives Iliria Fushë-Krujë the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.7% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 0.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Iliria Fushë-Krujë home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Apolonia Fier away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.4%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–012.6%
- 0–111.6%
- 2–08.3%
Recent form
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
- 2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Kastrioti Krujë · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Burreli · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Besa Kavajë · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-07T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Veleçiku Koplik · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bylis · 1-1 (D)
Apolonia Fier
- 2026-10-07T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Maliqi · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Burreli · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-04-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Iliria Fushë-Krujë · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Besa Kavajë · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Korabi Peshkopi · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-25T13:00:00.000Z · Iliria Fushë-Krujë 2-1 Apolonia Fier (1st Division)
- 2026-01-31T12:30:00.000Z · Iliria Fushë-Krujë 2-0 Apolonia Fier (1st Division)
- 2025-10-28T13:00:00.000Z · Iliria Fushë-Krujë 0-0 Apolonia Fier (1st Division)
- 2020-01-25T12:00:00.000Z · Iliria Fushë-Krujë 0-1 Apolonia Fier (1st Division)
- 2019-10-05T12:00:00.000Z · Iliria Fushë-Krujë 0-1 Apolonia Fier (1st Division)
- 2017-12-16T12:00:00.000Z · Iliria Fushë-Krujë 0-2 Apolonia Fier (1st Division)
- 2017-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · Iliria Fushë-Krujë 3-1 Apolonia Fier (1st Division)
1st Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Besa Kavajë | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Pogradeci | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Flamurtari | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | FK Kukesi | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Iliria Fushë-Krujë | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Bylis | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Besëlidhja Lezhë | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Kastrioti Krujë | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 9 | Korabi Peshkopi | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 10 | Sopoti Librazhd | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 | Burreli | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 12 | Oriku | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.