· Analysis updated 01:06 UTC
Iliria Fushë-Krujë vs Pogradeci Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Iliria Fushë-Krujë and 1.00 for Pogradeci, a combined total of 1.92. That distribution gives Pogradeci the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.7% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Iliria Fushë-Krujë home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pogradeci away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pogradeci to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 32% / 32% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.93 goals for Iliria Fushë-Krujë and 1.00 for Pogradeci, a combined 1.92 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–014.6%
- 0–114.6%
- 1–013.5%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–27.3%
Recent form
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
- 2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Kastrioti Krujë · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Burreli · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Besa Kavajë · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-07T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Veleçiku Koplik · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bylis · 1-1 (D)
Pogradeci
- 2026-10-23T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Bylis · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-17T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Sopoti Librazhd · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Korabi Peshkopi · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Delvina · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Flamurtari · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1st Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Besa Kavajë | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Pogradeci | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Flamurtari | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | FK Kukesi | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Iliria Fushë-Krujë | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Bylis | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Besëlidhja Lezhë | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Kastrioti Krujë | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 9 | Korabi Peshkopi | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 10 | Sopoti Librazhd | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 | Burreli | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 12 | Oriku | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.