· Analysis updated 14:06 UTC
Ilkeston Town vs Basford United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Ilkeston Town and 2.65 for Basford United, a combined total of 4.15. That distribution gives Basford United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Basford United win
62.1% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 2.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ilkeston Town home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Basford United away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Basford United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 20% / 18% / 62% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Ilkeston Town and 2.65 for Basford United, a combined 4.15 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
38%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.3%
- 1–37.3%
- 1–16.3%
- 2–26.2%
- 0–25.5%
Recent form
Ilkeston Town
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Avro · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Gainsborough Trinity · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Redcar Athletic · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Guiseley AFC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lancaster City · 1-2 (L)
Basford United
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Halesowen Town · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bedworth United · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Heaton Stannington · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-28T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Ilkeston Town · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-07-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Gainsborough Trinity · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Basford United win, at 62.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.