· Analysis updated 20:17 UTC
Illertissen vs TSV 1860 München Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.66 expected goals for Illertissen and 1.51 for TSV 1860 München, a combined total of 3.16. That distribution gives Illertissen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.0% probability
Expected goals
1.66 – 1.51
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Illertissen home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Illertissen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 24% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.66 goals for Illertissen and 1.51 for TSV 1860 München, a combined 3.16 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 61% and both teams to score at 63%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–27.9%
- 1–07.0%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
Illertissen
- 2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bayern München II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-21T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayreuth · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs SpVgg Unterhaching · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-07T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Landsberg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Schwaben Augsburg · 2-0 (W)
TSV 1860 München
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Regionalliga - Bayern table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Memmingen | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 33 |
| 2 | Buchbach | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 29 |
| 3 | SpVgg Unterhaching | 15 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 28 |
| 4 | TSV 1860 München | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 27 |
| 5 | Augsburg II | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 24 |
| 6 | Illertissen | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 23 |
| 7 | Bayreuth | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 22 |
| 8 | Vilzing | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 21 |
| 9 | Eichstätt | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 21 |
| 10 | Wacker Burghausen | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 20 |
| 11 | Nürnberg II | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 20 |
| 12 | Bayern München II | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 19 |
| 13 | Eltersdorf | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | -1 | 18 |
| 14 | Schwaben Augsburg | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 18 |
| 15 | FC Schweinfurt 05 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 17 |
| 16 | Greuther Fürth II | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -6 | 13 |
| 17 | Ansbach | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -17 | 12 |
| 18 | Aubstadt | 15 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -7 | 11 |
| 19 | Landsberg | 15 | 1 | 6 | 8 | -16 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.