· Analysis updated 16:50 UTC
Illescas vs CF Talavera Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Illescas and 0.84 for CF Talavera, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Illescas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
73.6% probability
Expected goals
1.16 – 0.84
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Illescas home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
CF Talavera away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Illescas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 30% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.16 goals for Illescas and 0.84 for CF Talavera, a combined 2.00 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.8%
- 0–013.6%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–111.4%
- 2–09.1%
Recent form
Illescas
- 2026-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Pozuelo Alarcón · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-18T08:00:00.000Z · H vs SS Reyes II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-14T18:30:00.000Z · H vs CF Talavera · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Manchego · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Villarrobledo · 0-0 (D)
CF Talavera
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Valladolid II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Getafe II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Madrid III · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Navalcarnero · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs RSD Alcalá · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 73.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.