Estadio Papa Luna · Analysis updated 09:55 UTC
Illueca vs Atlético Monzón Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Illueca and 1.73 for Atlético Monzón, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Atlético Monzón the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Atlético Monzón win
56.2% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 1.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Illueca home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atlético Monzón away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.2%
- 1–111.3%
- 0–210.5%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–07.1%
Recent form
Illueca
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · H vs CD Sietamo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Almudévar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Belchite 97 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Ejea · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Brea · 0-3 (L)
Atlético Monzón
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Zaragoza II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Huesca II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Almudévar · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Fraga · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Robres · 4-3 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-03T15:30:00.000Z · Illueca 2-3 Atlético Monzón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 17)
- 2026-01-04T11:00:00.000Z · Illueca 1-3 Atlético Monzón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 17)
- 2024-02-18T11:00:00.000Z · Illueca 2-0 Atlético Monzón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 17)
- 2023-09-30T15:30:00.000Z · Illueca 0-0 Atlético Monzón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 17)
- 2023-01-22T11:00:00.000Z · Illueca 2-2 Atlético Monzón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 17)
- 2022-11-01T15:30:00.000Z · Illueca 1-2 Atlético Monzón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 17)
- 2022-02-20T15:30:00.000Z · Illueca 2-2 Atlético Monzón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 17)
- 2021-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · Illueca 1-0 Atlético Monzón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 17)
- 2021-01-31T15:00:00.000Z · Illueca 1-0 Atlético Monzón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 17)
- 2021-01-03T15:00:00.000Z · Illueca 1-1 Atlético Monzón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 17)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Zaragoza II | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
| 2 | Ejea | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Brea | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | Caspe | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 5 | Fraga | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 6 | Cuarte | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 7 | Épila | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Binéfar | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Huesca II | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | La Almunia | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Atlético Monzón | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 10 |
| 12 | CDJ Tamarite | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 13 | Almudévar | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 |
| 14 | Andorra CF | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | Illueca | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | CD Sietamo | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 17 | Robres | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 2 |
| 18 | Belchite 97 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Atlético Monzón win, at 56.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.