Tammelan Stadion · Analysis updated 12:35 UTC
Ilves II vs GrIFK Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.05 expected goals for Ilves II and 1.45 for GrIFK, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Ilves II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ilves II win
51.5% probability
Expected goals
2.05 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ilves II home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
GrIFK away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ilves II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 21% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.05 goals for Ilves II and 1.45 for GrIFK, a combined 3.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.2%
- 1–19.0%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–26.5%
- 2–06.3%
Recent form
Ilves II
- 2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs NJS · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs HJS Akatemia · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Musa · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-07-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs P-Iirot · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Honka · 2-2 (D)
GrIFK
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs NJS · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Musa · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs EBK · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Musa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs NJS · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Kakkonen - Lohko B table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ilves II win, at 51.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.