Tammelan Stadion · Analysis updated 11:27 UTC
Ilves II vs Honka Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.84 expected goals for Ilves II and 2.45 for Honka, a combined total of 4.29. That distribution gives Honka the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Honka win
51.7% probability
Expected goals
1.84 – 2.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ilves II home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Honka away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Honka to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 29% / 19% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.84 goals for Ilves II and 2.45 for Honka, a combined 4.29 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.6%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–36.2%
- 1–16.2%
- 2–35.7%
Recent form
Ilves II
- 2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs NJS · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs HJS Akatemia · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Musa · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-07-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs P-Iirot · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Honka · 2-2 (D)
Honka
- 2026-10-23T15:30:00.000Z · H vs ÅIFK · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs ÅIFK · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs JBK · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T15:00:00.000Z · A vs JBK · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs ÅIFK · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Kakkonen - Lohko B table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Honka win, at 51.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.