Ilves vs HJK Helsinki Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Ilves and 1.23 for HJK Helsinki, a combined total of 2.48. That distribution gives Ilves the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

64.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.25 – 1.23

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Ilves home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
HJK Helsinki away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ilves to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 27% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Ilves and 1.23 for HJK Helsinki, a combined 2.48 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Ilves win37%

Draw27%

HJK Helsinki win36%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

63%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals71%

Over 2.5 goals45%

Over 3.5 goals24%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

1–112.9%
1–010.5%
0–110.3%
0–08.4%
2–18.1%

Recent form

Ilves

2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Mariehamn · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Haka · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Turku PS · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lahti · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FF Jaro · 2-0 (W)

HJK Helsinki

2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · H vs KuPS · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gnistan · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs AC Oulu · 4-3 (W)
2026-10-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs VPS · 6-0 (W)
2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Gnistan · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Veikkausliiga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	KuPS	22	12	7	3	15	43
2	Inter Turku	22	11	9	2	13	42
3	HJK Helsinki	22	11	4	7	9	37
4	Gnistan	22	10	6	6	7	36
5	AC Oulu	22	10	4	8	0	34
6	VPS	22	9	6	7	7	33
7	Lahti	22	9	5	8	7	32
8	Turku PS	22	8	7	7	5	31
9	Ilves	22	7	4	11	-3	25
10	SJK	22	4	7	11	-8	19
11	FF Jaro	22	3	6	13	-26	15
12	Mariehamn	22	3	5	14	-26	14
1	Inter Turku	29	15	10	4	15	55
2	HJK Helsinki	29	15	7	7	21	52
3	KuPS	29	14	10	5	17	52
4	AC Oulu	29	13	4	12	-1	43
5	Gnistan	29	11	9	9	2	42
6	VPS	29	11	6	12	-3	39
1	Lahti	27	11	6	10	9	39
2	Ilves	27	11	5	11	6	38
3	Turku PS	27	8	8	11	-4	32
4	SJK	27	6	9	12	-8	27
5	FF Jaro	27	4	9	14	-27	21
6	Mariehamn	27	4	7	16	-27	19

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.