Ilves vs Stjarnan Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Ilves and 1.43 for Stjarnan, a combined total of 3.18. That distribution gives Ilves the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Ilves win

45.3% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.75 – 1.43

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Ilves win45%

Draw23%

Stjarnan win32%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score63%

Correct score

1–110.4%
2–19.1%
1–27.4%
1–07.3%
2–26.5%

Why the model likes this

Ilves home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stjarnan away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ilves to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 23% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Ilves and 1.43 for Stjarnan, a combined 3.18 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Ilves

2026-08-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs HNK Rijeka · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Mariehamn · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-06T18:45:00.000Z · A vs HNK Rijeka · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-02T14:00:00.000Z · A vs AC Oulu · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Stjarnan · 1-0 (W)

Stjarnan

2026-08-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Keflavik · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-03T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Valur Reykjavik · 3-2 (W)
2026-07-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Ilves · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-26T19:15:00.000Z · A vs IA Akranes · 1-5 (L)
2026-07-23T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Ilves · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.