Kaupin urheilupuisto · Analysis updated 09:15 UTC
Ilves W vs IF Gnistan Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.13 expected goals for Ilves W and 1.40 for IF Gnistan, a combined total of 3.53. That distribution gives Ilves W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ilves W win
54.1% probability
Expected goals
2.13 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
IF Gnistan away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ilves W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 21% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.13 goals for Ilves W and 1.40 for IF Gnistan, a combined 3.53 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 68% and both teams to score at 66%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.3%
- 1–18.8%
- 2–06.6%
- 3–16.6%
- 2–26.5%
Recent form
Ilves W
IF Gnistan
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs HPS W · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · H vs KuPS W · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Åland United W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Ilves W · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs HJK W · 1-6 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Kansallinen Liiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HJK W | 14 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 29 | 39 |
| 2 | Åland United W | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 28 |
| 3 | KuPS W | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 28 |
| 4 | HPS W | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 24 |
| 5 | Ilves W | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 22 |
| 6 | IF Gnistan | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -11 | 13 |
| 7 | PK-35 Vantaa W | 14 | 2 | 1 | 11 | -23 | 7 |
| 8 | VIFK W | 14 | 0 | 2 | 12 | -32 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ilves W win, at 54.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.