Arigato Service Dream · Analysis updated 15:01 UTC
Imabari vs Blaublitz Akita Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Imabari and 1.20 for Blaublitz Akita, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Blaublitz Akita the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.2% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Imabari home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Blaublitz Akita away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.2%
- 0–111.4%
- 1–011.0%
- 0–09.5%
- 1–27.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.1%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | No | 1.80 | 50.7% | 52.2% | 1.92 | +1.5 |
| Match result | Home | 2.74 | 33.5% | 34.8% | 2.87 | +1.3 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.20 | 77.8% | 78.9% | 1.27 | +1.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.50 | 62.0% | 62.8% | 1.59 | +0.8 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.62 | 57.6% | 58.3% | 1.72 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Away | 2.48 | 37.0% | 37.2% | 2.69 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.42 | 65.4% | 65.2% | 1.53 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.28 | 72.6% | 72.0% | 1.39 | -0.6 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.20 | 42.4% | 41.7% | 2.40 | -0.7 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 4.20 | 22.2% | 21.1% | 4.74 | -1.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.85 | 49.3% | 47.8% | 2.09 | -1.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 29.6% | 28.0% | 3.57 | -1.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Imabari
- 2026-10-25T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Blaublitz Akita · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Vegalta Sendai · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Vanraure Hachinohe · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-10T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Tokushima Vortis · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Tochigi City · 2-1 (W)
Blaublitz Akita
- 2026-10-11T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Iwaki · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Sagan Tosu · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Albirex Niigata · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Shonan Bellmare · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Tokushima Vortis · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-26T10:00:00.000Z · Imabari 4-1 Blaublitz Akita (Emperor Cup)
- 2025-08-23T09:00:00.000Z · Imabari 2-1 Blaublitz Akita (J2 League)
- 2025-02-16T04:10:00.000Z · Imabari 0-1 Blaublitz Akita (J2 League)
- 2020-12-05T04:00:00.000Z · Imabari 3-1 Blaublitz Akita (J3 League)
- 2020-09-13T06:00:00.000Z · Imabari 0-1 Blaublitz Akita (J3 League)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.