Arigato Service Dream · Referee N. Uehara · Analysis updated 17:03 UTC
Imabari vs Shonan Bellmare Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.14 expected goals for Imabari and 1.46 for Shonan Bellmare, a combined total of 2.59. That distribution gives Shonan Bellmare the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.4% probability
Expected goals
1.14 – 1.46
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Imabari home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Shonan Bellmare away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Shonan Bellmare to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 30% / 26% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.14 goals for Imabari and 1.46 for Shonan Bellmare, a combined 2.59 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 0–110.9%
- 1–29.0%
- 1–08.5%
- 0–27.9%
Recent form
Imabari
- 2026-08-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Blaublitz Akita · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Kataller Toyama · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-15T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Omiya Ardija · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-09T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Iwaki · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-22T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Vissel Kobe · 1-2 (L)
Shonan Bellmare
- 2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Imabari · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Blaublitz Akita · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Vanraure Hachinohe · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Matsumoto Yamaga · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Vegalta Sendai · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
J2 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vegalta Sendai | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 24 |
| 2 | Omiya Ardija | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 20 |
| 3 | Albirex Niigata | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 20 |
| 4 | Kataller Toyama | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 19 |
| 5 | Yokohama FC | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 18 |
| 6 | Shonan Bellmare | 11 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 18 |
| 7 | Oita Trinita | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 8 | Iwaki | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 15 |
| 9 | Fujieda MYFC | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 10 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 14 |
| 11 | Jubilo Iwata | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 14 |
| 12 | Sagan Tosu | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 | Tokushima Vortis | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 14 |
| 14 | Montedio Yamagata | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 13 |
| 15 | Blaublitz Akita | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 16 | Tochigi City | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -1 | 11 |
| 17 | Consadole Sapporo | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -6 | 11 |
| 18 | Imabari | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 11 |
| 19 | Vanraure Hachinohe | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 11 |
| 20 | Ventforet Kofu | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.