Yevlakh City Stadium · Referee E. Bayramov · Analysis updated 15:24 UTC
Imisli FK vs Qarabag Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Imisli FK and 2.00 for Qarabag, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Qarabag the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Qarabag win
57.6% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 2.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Imisli FK home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Qarabag away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Qarabag to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 21% / 21% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for Imisli FK and 2.00 for Qarabag, a combined 3.13 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.9%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–18.8%
- 0–28.8%
- 1–36.6%
Recent form
Imisli FK
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Qarabag · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Sabah FA · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Neftchi Baku · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Qabala · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Safa Baku · 1-0 (W)
Qarabag
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Imisli FK · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Safa Baku · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Zira · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Araz · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-31T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Sumqayıt · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-16T13:00:00.000Z · Imisli FK 0-3 Qarabag (Premyer Liqa)
- 2026-02-14T10:30:00.000Z · Imisli FK 0-1 Qarabag (Premyer Liqa)
- 2025-10-31T13:00:00.000Z · Imisli FK 0-2 Qarabag (Premyer Liqa)
Premyer Liqa table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Qarabag win, at 57.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.