· Analysis updated 14:38 UTC
Imisli FK vs Şamaxı FK Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for Imisli FK and 1.83 for Şamaxı FK, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Şamaxı FK the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Şamaxı FK win
57.9% probability
Expected goals
0.95 – 1.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Imisli FK home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Şamaxı FK to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 19% / 23% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.95 goals for Imisli FK and 1.83 for Şamaxı FK, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 52% and both teams to score at 51%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–111.4%
- 1–110.8%
- 0–210.4%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–36.3%
Recent form
Imisli FK
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Qarabag · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Sabah FA · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Neftchi Baku · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Qabala · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Safa Baku · 1-0 (W)
Şamaxı FK
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premyer Liqa table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Şamaxı FK win, at 57.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.