· Analysis updated 09:18 UTC
Imisli FK vs Zira Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Imisli FK and 1.20 for Zira, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Imisli FK the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.6% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Imisli FK home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Imisli FK to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Imisli FK and 1.20 for Zira, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 51% and both teams to score at 54%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 1–010.1%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–18.1%
- 2–07.6%
Recent form
Imisli FK
- 2026-10-25T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Şamaxı FK · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Turan · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Qarabag · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Sabah FA · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Neftchi Baku · 2-3 (L)
Zira
- 2026-10-23T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sumqayıt · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-18T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Kapaz · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Şamaxı FK · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Turan · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Qarabag · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-22T16:45:00.000Z · Imisli FK 1-3 Zira (Premyer Liqa)
- 2026-05-08T12:30:00.000Z · Imisli FK 0-0 Zira (Premyer Liqa)
- 2025-12-20T12:30:00.000Z · Imisli FK 0-0 Zira (Premyer Liqa)
- 2025-09-26T11:30:00.000Z · Imisli FK 1-1 Zira (Premyer Liqa)
Premyer Liqa table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.