Stadio Romeo Galli · Analysis updated 14:52 UTC
Imolese vs Trevigliese Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Imolese and 0.95 for Trevigliese, a combined total of 2.71. That distribution gives Imolese the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Imolese win
56.5% probability
Expected goals
1.76 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Imolese home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Trevigliese away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Imolese to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 23% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for Imolese and 0.95 for Trevigliese, a combined 2.71 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.7%
- 1–111.1%
- 2–010.3%
- 2–19.8%
- 0–06.6%
Recent form
Imolese
- 2026-05-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sasso Marconi Zola · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rovato Vertovese · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sasso Marconi Zola · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Desenzano Calvina · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Coriano · 0-2 (L)
Trevigliese
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tuttocuoio · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lentigione · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Correggese · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pro Palazzolo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-02T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Piacenza · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone D table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pistoiese | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 21 |
| 2 | Pro Patria | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | Lentigione | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 4 | Castellanzese | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 15 |
| 5 | Pro Sesto | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 14 |
| 6 | USD Casatese | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Cittadella Vis Modena | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | Correggese | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 9 | Città di Varese | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 10 | Pavia | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 11 | Sant'Angelo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | Varesina | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 13 | Solbiatese | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -4 | 6 |
| 14 | Coriano | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Crema | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 5 |
| 16 | Arconatese | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -10 | 3 |
| 17 | Oltrepò | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -12 | 3 |
| 18 | Pontedera | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -13 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Imolese win, at 56.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.