· Analysis updated 14:41 UTC
Imortal Albufeira vs Santa Clara B Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.97 expected goals for Imortal Albufeira and 0.87 for Santa Clara B, a combined total of 2.84. That distribution gives Imortal Albufeira the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Imortal Albufeira win
62.9% probability
Expected goals
1.97 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Imortal Albufeira home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Imortal Albufeira to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 21% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.97 goals for Imortal Albufeira and 0.87 for Santa Clara B, a combined 2.84 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 54% and both teams to score at 50%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.5%
- 2–011.3%
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–07.4%
Recent form
Imortal Albufeira
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Portel · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Tondela · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Alcochetense · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sintrense · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lagoa · 1-0 (W)
Santa Clara B
- 2026-10-04T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Real · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sintrense · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Lagoa · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Imortal Albufeira | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 10 |
| 2 | Sintrense | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 3 | FC Serpa | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 4 | Juventude Évora | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 5 | Amora | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 6 | Real | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Lagoa | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 8 | Alcochetense | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 9 | Vitoria Setubal | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 10 | 1º Dezembro | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -4 | 5 |
| 11 | Lajense | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | Santa Clara B | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 13 | Portel | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Aljustrelense | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -9 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Imortal Albufeira win, at 62.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.