· Analysis updated 16:20 UTC
Imperia vs Bra Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Imperia and 0.76 for Bra, a combined total of 2.06. That distribution gives Imperia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Imperia win
49.3% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 0.76
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Imperia home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bra away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Imperia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 29% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Imperia and 0.76 for Bra, a combined 2.06 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.5%
- 0–012.7%
- 1–112.6%
- 2–010.7%
- 0–19.7%
Recent form
Imperia
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lascaris · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Alessandria · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fezzanese · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Asti · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Derthona · 1-1 (D)
Bra
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Saluzzo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-07T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Celle Varazze · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sanremese · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Borgosesia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Biellese · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alessandria | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 2 | Biellese | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| 3 | Derthona | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 |
| 4 | Ligorna | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Asti | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 6 | Gozzano | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | Saluzzo | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Millesimo | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | Chisola | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Imperia | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | Lascaris | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Sanremese | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 13 | Fezzanese | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 14 | Sestri Levante | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 15 | Borgosesia | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Bra | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 17 | Valenzana | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 18 | Celle Varazze | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -12 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Imperia win, at 49.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.