Imperia vs Celle Varazze Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.89 expected goals for Imperia and 0.54 for Celle Varazze, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives Imperia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Imperia win

70.0% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.89 – 0.54

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Imperia home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Celle Varazze away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Imperia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 20% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.89 goals for Imperia and 0.54 for Celle Varazze, a combined 2.43 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Imperia win70%

Draw20%

Celle Varazze win10%

Double chance 1X

90%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

30%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals44%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score35%

Correct score

1–016.6%
2–015.7%
3–09.9%
1–19.0%
0–08.8%

Recent form

Imperia

2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Biellese · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lascaris · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Alessandria · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fezzanese · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Asti · 1-2 (L)

Celle Varazze

2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sestri Levante · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bra · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Chisola · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ligorna · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Saluzzo · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie D - Girone A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Alessandria	6	5	0	1	4	15
2	Biellese	6	4	2	0	7	14
3	Derthona	6	3	2	1	1	11
4	Ligorna	6	3	1	2	1	10
5	Asti	6	3	1	2	1	10
6	Gozzano	6	3	1	2	1	10
7	Saluzzo	6	2	3	1	3	9
8	Millesimo	6	3	0	3	2	9
9	Chisola	6	2	2	2	2	8
10	Imperia	6	2	2	2	1	8
11	Lascaris	6	2	2	2	-3	8
12	Sanremese	6	2	2	2	2	8
13	Fezzanese	6	2	1	3	0	7
14	Sestri Levante	6	2	1	3	-2	7
15	Borgosesia	6	1	3	2	-2	6
16	Bra	6	1	2	3	-3	5
17	Valenzana	6	1	1	4	-3	4
18	Celle Varazze	6	0	0	6	-12	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Imperia win, at 70.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.