VELLY Arena Imst Tirol · Analysis updated 15:29 UTC
Imst vs SVG Reichenau Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.09 expected goals for Imst and 0.79 for SVG Reichenau, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives Imst the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Imst win
67.4% probability
Expected goals
2.09 – 0.79
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Imst home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SVG Reichenau away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
33%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–012.2%
- 1–011.7%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–19.3%
- 3–08.5%
Recent form
Imst
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kufstein · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lochau · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Hohenems · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs SK St. Johann · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-09T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Kitzbühel · 2-3 (L)
SVG Reichenau
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hohenems · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kitzbühel · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Schwaz · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lauterach · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Röthis · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-31T17:00:00.000Z · Imst 3-0 SVG Reichenau (Regionalliga - West)
- 2026-04-06T12:00:00.000Z · Imst 6-1 SVG Reichenau (Regionalliga - West)
- 2025-09-05T16:15:00.000Z · Imst 5-2 SVG Reichenau (Regionalliga - West)
- 2025-03-29T14:00:00.000Z · Imst 4-0 SVG Reichenau (Regionalliga - West)
- 2024-08-22T17:00:00.000Z · Imst 3-0 SVG Reichenau (Regionalliga - West)
- 2023-11-11T14:00:00.000Z · Imst 2-1 SVG Reichenau (Regionalliga - West)
- 2023-07-30T08:30:00.000Z · Imst 2-1 SVG Reichenau (Regionalliga - West)
- 2023-04-01T15:00:00.000Z · Imst 2-4 SVG Reichenau (Regionalliga - Tirol)
- 2022-07-22T16:15:00.000Z · Imst 2-5 SVG Reichenau (Regionalliga - Tirol)
- 2022-05-22T08:30:00.000Z · Imst 5-1 SVG Reichenau (Regionalliga - Tirol)
Regionalliga - West table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Imst | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 28 |
| 2 | Schwaz | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 28 |
| 3 | Hohenems | 12 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 27 |
| 4 | Dornbirn | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 24 |
| 5 | Kitzbühel | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 22 |
| 6 | Röthis | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 21 |
| 7 | Swarovski Tirol II | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 20 |
| 8 | SK St. Johann | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 18 |
| 9 | Fügen | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 16 |
| 10 | SVG Reichenau | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 15 |
| 11 | Lauterach | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 12 |
| 12 | Kufstein | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 | Lochau | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -13 | 11 |
| 14 | Lustenau | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -20 | 7 |
| 15 | Rheindorf Altach II | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -16 | 6 |
| 16 | Wolfurt | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | -22 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Imst win, at 67.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.