VELLY Arena Imst Tirol · Analysis updated 13:33 UTC
Imst vs Swarovski Tirol II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.37 expected goals for Imst and 1.33 for Swarovski Tirol II, a combined total of 3.71. That distribution gives Imst the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Imst win
60.5% probability
Expected goals
2.37 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Imst home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Swarovski Tirol II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Imst to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 19% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.37 goals for Imst and 1.33 for Swarovski Tirol II, a combined 3.71 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.2%
- 1–17.8%
- 3–17.3%
- 2–06.9%
- 2–26.1%
Recent form
Imst
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kufstein · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lochau · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Hohenems · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs SK St. Johann · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-09T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Kitzbühel · 2-3 (L)
Swarovski Tirol II
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hohenems · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-10-18T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Kitzbühel · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Schwaz · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-04T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Lauterach · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Röthis · 4-3 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Regionalliga - West table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Imst | 13 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 31 |
| 2 | Schwaz | 13 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 31 |
| 3 | Hohenems | 13 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 30 |
| 4 | Kitzbühel | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 25 |
| 5 | Dornbirn | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 24 |
| 6 | Röthis | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 24 |
| 7 | Swarovski Tirol II | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 20 |
| 8 | SK St. Johann | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 9 | Fügen | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | -7 | 16 |
| 10 | Lauterach | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 15 |
| 11 | SVG Reichenau | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 15 |
| 12 | Kufstein | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 14 |
| 13 | Lochau | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -15 | 11 |
| 14 | Rheindorf Altach II | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -14 | 9 |
| 15 | Lustenau | 13 | 1 | 4 | 8 | -21 | 7 |
| 16 | Wolfurt | 13 | 1 | 1 | 11 | -23 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Imst win, at 60.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.