· Analysis updated 21:09 UTC
IMT Novi Beograd vs Gaziantep FK Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.75 expected goals for IMT Novi Beograd and 1.45 for Gaziantep FK, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Gaziantep FK the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Gaziantep FK win
53.8% probability
Expected goals
0.75 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
IMT Novi Beograd home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gaziantep FK away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gaziantep FK to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 19% / 27% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.75 goals for IMT Novi Beograd and 1.45 for Gaziantep FK, a combined 2.20 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.1%
- 1–112.0%
- 0–211.6%
- 0–011.1%
- 1–28.7%
Recent form
IMT Novi Beograd
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Novi Pazar · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Radnik Surdulica · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Vojvodina · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Crvena Zvezda · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-07T18:00:00.000Z · A vs OFK Beograd · 1-1 (D)
Gaziantep FK
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kocaelispor · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Fenerbahçe · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Göztepe · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Rizespor · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Eyüpspor · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Gaziantep FK win, at 53.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.