IMT Novi Beograd vs Zemun Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for IMT Novi Beograd and 0.46 for Zemun, a combined total of 2.27. That distribution gives IMT Novi Beograd the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

IMT Novi Beograd win

70.5% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.81 – 0.46

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

IMT Novi Beograd home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Zemun away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates IMT Novi Beograd to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 71% / 21% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for IMT Novi Beograd and 0.46 for Zemun, a combined 2.27 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

IMT Novi Beograd win71%

Draw21%

Zemun win9%

Double chance 1X

91%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

30%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals66%

Over 2.5 goals40%

Over 3.5 goals19%

Both teams to score31%

Correct score

1–018.7%
2–017.0%
0–010.4%
3–010.2%
1–18.6%

Recent form

IMT Novi Beograd

2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Novi Pazar · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Radnik Surdulica · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Vojvodina · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Crvena Zvezda · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-07T18:00:00.000Z · A vs OFK Beograd · 1-1 (D)

Zemun

2026-10-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Macva · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Cukaricki · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Železničar Pančevo · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Novi Pazar · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Radnik Surdulica · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-07-25T18:00:00.000Z · IMT Novi Beograd 4-0 Zemun (Super Liga)
2021-04-07T14:00:00.000Z · IMT Novi Beograd 2-0 Zemun (Prva Liga)
2020-10-02T13:00:00.000Z · IMT Novi Beograd 0-0 Zemun (Prva Liga)

Super Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FK Crvena Zvezda	13	12	1	0	29	37
2	Vojvodina	13	9	2	2	16	29
3	Železničar Pančevo	12	7	2	3	9	23
4	IMT Novi Beograd	13	6	3	4	6	21
5	Radnicki 1923	12	6	2	4	4	20
6	Cukaricki	13	5	3	5	-1	18
7	Mladost Lucani	13	4	6	3	-6	18
8	Radnik Surdulica	13	4	5	4	0	17
9	Novi Pazar	13	4	4	5	-1	16
10	FK Partizan	12	3	2	7	-4	11
11	OFK Beograd	13	2	5	6	-9	11
12	Macva	13	2	4	7	-12	10
13	Radnicki NIS	12	2	2	8	-13	8
14	Zemun	13	1	3	9	-18	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is IMT Novi Beograd win, at 70.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 31% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.

A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.