· Analysis updated 14:51 UTC
Inca Aruba vs Atletico Balboa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for Inca Aruba and 2.15 for Atletico Balboa, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Atletico Balboa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Atletico Balboa win
62.5% probability
Expected goals
1.05 – 2.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Inca Aruba home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atletico Balboa away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atletico Balboa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 18% / 20% / 63% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.05 goals for Inca Aruba and 2.15 for Atletico Balboa, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
38%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.9%
- 0–29.4%
- 1–19.2%
- 0–18.8%
- 1–37.1%
Recent form
Inca Aruba
- 2026-09-12T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Águila · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-09T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Balboa · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Isidro Metapán · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Cacahuatique · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter · 1-4 (L)
Atletico Balboa
- 2026-10-03T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Isidro Metapán · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-29T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Cacahuatique · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Firpo · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Platense · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FAS | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 30 |
| 2 | Firpo | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 28 |
| 3 | Isidro Metapán | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 26 |
| 4 | Águila | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 23 |
| 5 | Inter | 15 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 23 |
| 6 | Alianza | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 19 |
| 7 | Platense | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -1 | 19 |
| 8 | Municipal Limeño | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | -1 | 17 |
| 9 | Inca Aruba | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | -14 | 16 |
| 10 | Atletico Balboa | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -8 | 13 |
| 11 | Fuerte San Francisco | 15 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -13 | 12 |
| 12 | Cacahuatique | 15 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -11 | 11 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Atletico Balboa win, at 62.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.