· Analysis updated 05:17 UTC
Inca Aruba vs Fuerte San Francisco Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Inca Aruba and 0.98 for Fuerte San Francisco, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Inca Aruba the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Inca Aruba win
46.1% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Inca Aruba home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fuerte San Francisco away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Inca Aruba to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 27% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Inca Aruba and 0.98 for Fuerte San Francisco, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.1%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–09.5%
- 0–19.3%
- 2–09.0%
Recent form
Inca Aruba
- 2026-10-24T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-16T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Firpo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Platense · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-05T01:00:00.000Z · A vs FAS · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-02T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Municipal Limeño · 2-1 (W)
Fuerte San Francisco
- 2026-10-18T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Isidro Metapán · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Cacahuatique · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-01T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Firpo · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Platense · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Firpo | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 31 |
| 2 | FAS | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 31 |
| 3 | Isidro Metapán | 17 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 30 |
| 4 | Águila | 17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 27 |
| 5 | Inter | 17 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 26 |
| 6 | Alianza | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 23 |
| 7 | Platense | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 22 |
| 8 | Municipal Limeño | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 21 |
| 9 | Inca Aruba | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | -18 | 16 |
| 10 | Atletico Balboa | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -8 | 14 |
| 11 | Cacahuatique | 17 | 2 | 7 | 8 | -11 | 13 |
| 12 | Fuerte San Francisco | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -14 | 12 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Inca Aruba win, at 46.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.