· Analysis updated 17:38 UTC
Inca Aruba vs Platense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Inca Aruba and 1.03 for Platense, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Inca Aruba the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.2% probability
Expected goals
1.28 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Inca Aruba home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Platense away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Inca Aruba to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 28% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for Inca Aruba and 1.03 for Platense, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.1%
- 1–012.8%
- 0–110.3%
- 0–010.0%
- 2–18.4%
Recent form
Inca Aruba
- 2026-09-12T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Águila · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-09T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Balboa · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Isidro Metapán · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Cacahuatique · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter · 1-4 (L)
Platense
- 2026-09-20T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Águila · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Balboa · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-09T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Isidro Metapán · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Cacahuatique · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Inter · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Firpo | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 31 |
| 2 | FAS | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 30 |
| 3 | Isidro Metapán | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 29 |
| 4 | Águila | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 24 |
| 5 | Inter | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 23 |
| 6 | Platense | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 22 |
| 7 | Alianza | 15 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 20 |
| 8 | Municipal Limeño | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 20 |
| 9 | Inca Aruba | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | -16 | 16 |
| 10 | Atletico Balboa | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -8 | 14 |
| 11 | Cacahuatique | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -11 | 12 |
| 12 | Fuerte San Francisco | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -14 | 12 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.