Incheon Football Stadium · Referee Hyun Jae Choi, South Korea · Analysis updated 13:33 UTC
Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Incheon United and 1.75 for Daejeon Citizen, a combined total of 2.98. That distribution gives Daejeon Citizen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Daejeon Citizen win
49.7% probability
Expected goals
1.23 – 1.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Incheon United home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Daejeon Citizen away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Daejeon Citizen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 27% / 24% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.23 goals for Incheon United and 1.75 for Daejeon Citizen, a combined 2.98 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.9%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–18.9%
- 0–27.8%
- 2–16.7%
Recent form
Incheon United
- 2026-10-09T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Pohang Steelers · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Gangwon FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Daejeon Citizen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Ulsan Hyundai FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Bucheon FC 1995 · 2-1 (W)
Daejeon Citizen
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Incheon United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kyoto Sanga · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Pohang Steelers · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-09T10:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Anyang · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Bucheon FC 1995 · 5-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Seoul | 31 | 20 | 5 | 6 | 32 | 65 |
| 2 | Ulsan Hyundai FC | 31 | 14 | 5 | 12 | 4 | 47 |
| 3 | Gangwon FC | 31 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 46 |
| 4 | Jeju United FC | 31 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 46 |
| 5 | Jeonbuk Motors | 31 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 44 |
| 6 | Daejeon Citizen | 31 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 43 |
| 7 | Incheon United | 31 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 42 |
| 8 | FC Anyang | 31 | 10 | 11 | 10 | -8 | 41 |
| 9 | Pohang Steelers | 31 | 11 | 7 | 13 | -9 | 40 |
| 10 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 31 | 5 | 18 | 8 | -7 | 33 |
| 11 | Bucheon FC 1995 | 31 | 7 | 11 | 13 | -11 | 32 |
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 31 | 2 | 12 | 17 | -41 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Daejeon Citizen win, at 49.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.