Estadio Juan Bautista Gargantini · Referee D. Herrera · Analysis updated 16:37 UTC
Independ. Rivadavia vs Aldosivi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Independ. Rivadavia and 1.08 for Aldosivi, a combined total of 2.72. That distribution gives Independ. Rivadavia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Independ. Rivadavia win
50.8% probability
Expected goals
1.65 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Independ. Rivadavia home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aldosivi away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 1–010.8%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–08.9%
- 0–17.0%
Recent form
Independ. Rivadavia
- 2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Rosario Central · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-03T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia L.P. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-21T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Barracas Central · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Tucuman · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Aldosivi · 4-3 (W)
Aldosivi
- 2026-10-09T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Sarmiento Junin · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Huracan · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-21T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Tucuman · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Independ. Rivadavia · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Banfield · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T17:45:00.000Z · Independ. Rivadavia 4-3 Aldosivi (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2026-08-26T22:15:00.000Z · Independ. Rivadavia 2-0 Aldosivi (Copa Argentina)
- 2026-05-03T16:30:00.000Z · Independ. Rivadavia 1-1 Aldosivi (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2025-11-01T17:45:00.000Z · Independ. Rivadavia 1-3 Aldosivi (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2025-04-23T00:15:00.000Z · Independ. Rivadavia 1-0 Aldosivi (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2023-06-17T20:00:00.000Z · Independ. Rivadavia 2-1 Aldosivi (Primera Nacional)
- 2023-02-10T22:10:00.000Z · Independ. Rivadavia 2-1 Aldosivi (Primera Nacional)
- 2017-12-09T20:00:00.000Z · Independ. Rivadavia 0-0 Aldosivi (Primera Nacional)
- 2014-04-06T19:00:00.000Z · Independ. Rivadavia 2-2 Aldosivi (Primera Nacional)
- 2013-10-05T18:30:00.000Z · Independ. Rivadavia 1-0 Aldosivi (Primera Nacional)
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Independ. Rivadavia win, at 50.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.