Estadio Juan Bautista Gargantini · Referee B. Ferreyra · Analysis updated 13:21 UTC
Independ. Rivadavia vs Atletico Tucuman Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Independ. Rivadavia and 1.21 for Atletico Tucuman, a combined total of 2.47. That distribution gives Independ. Rivadavia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.5% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.21
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Independ. Rivadavia home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atletico Tucuman away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Independ. Rivadavia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 27% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Independ. Rivadavia and 1.21 for Atletico Tucuman, a combined 2.47 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 1–010.6%
- 0–110.3%
- 0–08.5%
- 2–18.1%
Recent form
Independ. Rivadavia
- 2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Rosario Central · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-03T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia L.P. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-21T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Barracas Central · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Tucuman · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Aldosivi · 4-3 (W)
Atletico Tucuman
- 2026-10-24T00:15:00.000Z · A vs Tigre · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Rosario Central · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-09T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia L.P. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Barracas Central · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-21T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Aldosivi · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.