Estadio Juan Bautista Gargantini · Referee G. Pereira · Analysis updated 16:38 UTC
Independ. Rivadavia vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Independ. Rivadavia and 0.73 for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Independ. Rivadavia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Independ. Rivadavia win
57.7% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 0.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Independ. Rivadavia home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.8%
- 2–012.4%
- 1–111.4%
- 0–010.0%
- 2–19.0%
Recent form
Independ. Rivadavia
- 2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Rosario Central · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-03T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia L.P. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-21T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Barracas Central · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Tucuman · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Aldosivi · 4-3 (W)
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
- 2026-10-11T00:30:00.000Z · A vs River Plate · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-05T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Racing Club · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Belgrano Cordoba · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T00:15:00.000Z · A vs Instituto Cordoba · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T19:45:00.000Z · H vs Sarmiento Junin · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T00:45:00.000Z · Independ. Rivadavia 2-1 Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2026-02-10T00:30:00.000Z · Independ. Rivadavia 1-0 Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2022-09-18T19:30:00.000Z · Independ. Rivadavia 1-4 Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto (Primera Nacional)
- 2020-02-22T20:00:00.000Z · Independ. Rivadavia 0-0 Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto (Primera Nacional)
- 2019-09-01T17:30:00.000Z · Independ. Rivadavia 1-3 Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto (Primera Nacional)
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Independ. Rivadavia win, at 57.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.