Estadio Juan Bautista Gargantini · Referee B. Ferreyra · Analysis updated 19:45 UTC
Independ. Rivadavia vs Gimnasia L.P. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Independ. Rivadavia and 0.82 for Gimnasia L.P., a combined total of 1.90. That distribution gives Independ. Rivadavia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
72.6% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 0.82
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Independ. Rivadavia home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gimnasia L.P. away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.2%
- 0–015.0%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–112.3%
- 2–08.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.2%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.80 (model 63.0% vs market 51.5%, edge +11.5 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.80 | 51.5% | 63.0% | 1.59 | +11.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.30 | 72.2% | 72.6% | 1.38 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.90 | 31.3% | 31.4% | 3.18 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.60 | 58.7% | 58.8% | 1.70 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.20 | 41.2% | 41.2% | 2.43 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 3.30 | 27.5% | 27.4% | 3.65 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.36 | 69.1% | 68.6% | 1.46 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.91 | 48.5% | 37.0% | 2.70 | -11.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Independ. Rivadavia
- 2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Rosario Central · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-03T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia L.P. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-21T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Barracas Central · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Tucuman · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Aldosivi · 4-3 (W)
Gimnasia L.P.
- 2026-10-09T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Tucuman · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Independ. Rivadavia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Banfield · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Argentinos JRS · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Tigre · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-03T00:30:00.000Z · Independ. Rivadavia 1-1 Gimnasia L.P. (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2026-03-15T18:15:00.000Z · Independ. Rivadavia 3-2 Gimnasia L.P. (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2024-07-18T22:00:00.000Z · Independ. Rivadavia 1-0 Gimnasia L.P. (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2024-01-30T22:15:00.000Z · Independ. Rivadavia 3-2 Gimnasia L.P. (Copa de la Liga Profesional)
- 2013-03-29T20:00:00.000Z · Independ. Rivadavia 0-3 Gimnasia L.P. (Primera Nacional)
- 2012-09-29T00:15:00.000Z · Independ. Rivadavia 1-1 Gimnasia L.P. (Primera Nacional)
- 2012-05-12T14:00:00.000Z · Independ. Rivadavia 2-1 Gimnasia L.P. (Primera Nacional)
- 2011-11-12T20:00:00.000Z · Independ. Rivadavia 0-0 Gimnasia L.P. (Primera Nacional)
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.