Estadio Juan Bautista Gargantini · Referee A. Carranza · Analysis updated 04:37 UTC
Independ. Rivadavia vs Racing Club Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Independ. Rivadavia and 1.00 for Racing Club, a combined total of 2.33. That distribution gives Independ. Rivadavia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.8% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Independ. Rivadavia home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Independ. Rivadavia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 28% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Independ. Rivadavia and 1.00 for Racing Club, a combined 2.33 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.0%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–09.8%
- 0–19.8%
- 2–08.6%
Recent form
Independ. Rivadavia
- 2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Rosario Central · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-03T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia L.P. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-21T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Barracas Central · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Tucuman · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Aldosivi · 4-3 (W)
Racing Club
- 2026-10-18T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Independiente · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T22:15:00.000Z · H vs Belgrano Cordoba · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-05T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Boca Juniors · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T00:15:00.000Z · H vs Sarmiento Junin · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-31T00:30:00.000Z · Independ. Rivadavia 3-1 Racing Club (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2026-02-26T20:15:00.000Z · Independ. Rivadavia 1-1 Racing Club (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2025-10-07T00:00:00.000Z · Independ. Rivadavia 0-0 Racing Club (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2025-03-28T00:00:00.000Z · Independ. Rivadavia 2-1 Racing Club (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2024-11-10T22:30:00.000Z · Independ. Rivadavia 1-2 Racing Club (Liga Profesional Argentina)
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.