· Analysis updated 19:31 UTC
Independente SP vs Mogi Mirim Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.55 expected goals for Independente SP and 0.93 for Mogi Mirim, a combined total of 3.48. That distribution gives Independente SP the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Independente SP win
72.3% probability
Expected goals
2.55 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mogi Mirim away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Independente SP to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 72% / 16% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.55 goals for Independente SP and 0.93 for Mogi Mirim, a combined 3.48 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 68% and both teams to score at 56%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
28%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.0%
- 2–19.3%
- 3–08.5%
- 3–17.9%
- 1–07.8%
Recent form
Independente SP
Mogi Mirim
- 2026-06-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Matonense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Santacruzense · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Grêmio Catanduvense · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-05-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Independente SP · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-05-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sao Carlos · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Paulista Série B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Bonifácio | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 18 |
| 2 | America SP | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 3 | Assisense | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | Tupa | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 5 | Riopretano | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 6 | Santa Fé FC | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -9 | 3 |
| 1 | Independente SP | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 21 |
| 2 | Matonense | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 16 |
| 3 | Santacruzense | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 13 |
| 4 | Sao Carlos | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 |
| 5 | Mogi Mirim | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 9 |
| 6 | Grêmio Catanduvense | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -32 | 0 |
| 1 | Flamengo SP | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 17 |
| 2 | Guarulhos | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | Gremio Osasco Audax | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 13 |
| 4 | Sporting Paulinense | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 9 |
| 5 | Paulínia FU | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 6 | Votoraty | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 4 |
| 1 | Itaquá Athletico Clube | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 22 |
| 2 | Maua | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 3 | Mauaense | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | Uniao Mogi | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 5 | Manthiqueira | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 6 | Barcelona EC | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Independente SP win, at 72.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.