Raul Orlando Lungarzo · Analysis updated 15:56 UTC
Independiente De Chivilcoy vs Atletico Escobar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Independiente De Chivilcoy and 1.00 for Atletico Escobar, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Independiente De Chivilcoy the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.5% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Independiente De Chivilcoy home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atletico Escobar away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Independiente De Chivilcoy to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 29% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Independiente De Chivilcoy and 1.00 for Atletico Escobar, a combined 2.20 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.3%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–011.1%
- 0–111.1%
- 2–08.0%
Recent form
Independiente De Chivilcoy
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Escobar · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Defensores de Vilelas · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs El Linqueño · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia Concepción · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-23T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Tucuman Central · 2-0 (W)
Atletico Escobar
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Independiente De Chivilcoy · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-07T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Defensores de Vilelas · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T18:30:00.000Z · A vs El Linqueño · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia Concepción · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Tucuman Central · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.