· Analysis updated 07:05 UTC
Independiente de La Chorrera vs Union Cocle Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Independiente de La Chorrera and 0.93 for Union Cocle, a combined total of 3.11. That distribution gives Independiente de La Chorrera the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Independiente de La Chorrera win
65.8% probability
Expected goals
2.18 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Independiente de La Chorrera home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Union Cocle away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Independiente de La Chorrera to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 19% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.18 goals for Independiente de La Chorrera and 0.93 for Union Cocle, a combined 3.11 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.6%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.7%
- 1–19.0%
- 3–07.7%
Recent form
Independiente de La Chorrera
- 2026-10-24T23:15:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Universitario · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T23:15:00.000Z · H vs Veraguas · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T23:15:00.000Z · H vs CD Arabe Unido · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-29T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Alianza FC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T23:15:00.000Z · H vs Sporting San Miguelito · 4-3 (W)
Union Cocle
- 2026-10-18T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Herrera · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-06T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting San Miguelito · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Plaza Amador · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-22T01:00:00.000Z · A vs UMECIT · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T01:30:00.000Z · A vs CD Arabe Unido · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Panameña de Fútbol table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Plaza Amador | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 31 |
| 2 | Alianza FC | 16 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 27 |
| 3 | UMECIT | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 25 |
| 4 | Veraguas | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 25 |
| 5 | Union Cocle | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 23 |
| 6 | Tauro FC | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 21 |
| 7 | CD Arabe Unido | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 21 |
| 8 | Independiente de La Chorrera | 16 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| 9 | San Francisco FC | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | -3 | 20 |
| 10 | Sporting San Miguelito | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | -2 | 18 |
| 11 | Deportivo Universitario | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -8 | 14 |
| 12 | Herrera | 16 | 1 | 5 | 10 | -24 | 8 |
| 1 | Plaza Amador | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 30 |
| 2 | San Francisco FC | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 26 |
| 3 | CD Arabe Unido | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 23 |
| 4 | UMECIT | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 20 |
| 5 | Veraguas | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 18 |
| 6 | Tauro FC | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 17 |
| 7 | Independiente de La Chorrera | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 17 |
| 8 | Sporting San Miguelito | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 9 | Alianza FC | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -2 | 14 |
| 10 | Deportivo Universitario | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -4 | 11 |
| 11 | Herrera | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -16 | 11 |
| 12 | Union Cocle | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -14 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Independiente de La Chorrera win, at 65.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.