Ecuador · Liga Pro · Matchweek 2318:00

1 – 0

Sunday, 2 August 2026

Estadio Banco Guayaquil · Referee Augusto Bergelio Aragon Bautista, Ecuador · Analysis updated 15:10 UTC

Independiente del Valle vs Deportivo Cuenca Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.25 expected goals for Independiente del Valle and 0.75 for Deportivo Cuenca, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Independiente del Valle the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Independiente del Valle win

71.4% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.25 – 0.75

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Independiente del Valle home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Deportivo Cuenca away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Independiente del Valle to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 71% / 18% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.25 goals for Independiente del Valle and 0.75 for Deportivo Cuenca, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Independiente del Valle win71%

Draw18%

Deportivo Cuenca win11%

Double chance 1X

89%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

29%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score47%

Correct score

2–012.6%
1–011.2%
3–09.5%
2–19.5%
1–18.4%

Recent form

Independiente del Valle

2026-09-25T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Gualaceo SC · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-18T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Flamengo · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Libertad · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-11T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Flamengo · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-05T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Macara · 3-1 (W)

Deportivo Cuenca

2026-10-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Orense SC · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-20T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Mushuc Runa SC · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T00:00:00.000Z · A vs LDU de Quito · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-07T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Libertad · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-02T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Guayaquil City FC · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga Pro table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	30	24	2	4	40	74
2	Universidad Catolica	30	14	9	7	24	51
3	Macara	30	15	6	9	8	51
4	Aucas	30	14	8	8	5	50
5	LDU de Quito	30	13	7	10	7	46
6	Barcelona SC	30	11	11	8	7	44
7	Libertad	30	11	8	11	-1	41
8	Leones del Norte	30	10	9	11	-1	39
9	Guayaquil City FC	30	10	9	11	-3	39
10	Emelec	30	10	9	11	-9	39
11	Mushuc Runa SC	30	9	11	10	-3	38
12	Deportivo Cuenca	30	10	6	14	-12	36
13	Orense SC	30	9	6	15	-11	33
14	Tecnico Universitario	30	10	2	18	-14	32
15	Delfin SC	30	7	7	16	-12	28
16	Manta FC	30	5	6	19	-25	21
1	Independiente del Valle	31	25	2	4	41	77
2	Macara	32	17	6	9	10	57
3	LDU de Quito	32	15	7	10	9	52
4	Universidad Catolica	32	14	9	9	22	51
5	Aucas	32	14	8	10	3	50
6	Barcelona SC	31	11	11	9	6	44
7	Libertad	32	13	8	11	3	47
8	Guayaquil City FC	32	11	10	11	-2	43
9	Leones del Norte	32	10	10	12	-4	40
10	Emelec	32	10	9	13	-11	39
11	Mushuc Runa SC	32	9	12	11	-4	39
12	Deportivo Cuenca	32	10	8	14	-12	38
13	Orense SC	32	9	7	16	-12	34
14	Tecnico Universitario	32	10	3	19	-15	33
15	Delfin SC	32	8	8	16	-11	32
16	Manta FC	32	7	6	19	-23	27

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Independiente del Valle win, at 71.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.