Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Independiente del Valle and 1.35 for LDU de Quito, a combined total of 3.02. That distribution gives Independiente del Valle the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Independiente del Valle win

45.2% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.67 – 1.35

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Independiente del Valle home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Independiente del Valle to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 24% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Independiente del Valle and 1.35 for LDU de Quito, a combined 3.02 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 58% and both teams to score at 60%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Match result (1X2)

Independiente del Valle win45%

Draw24%

LDU de Quito win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–111.0%
2–19.2%
1–08.1%
1–27.4%
2–06.8%

Recent form

Independiente del Valle

2026-09-25T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Gualaceo SC · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-18T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Flamengo · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Libertad · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-11T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Flamengo · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-05T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Macara · 3-1 (W)

LDU de Quito

2026-10-11T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Barcelona SC · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Universidad Catolica · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-16T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Palmeiras · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-13T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Cuenca · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-09T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Palmeiras · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga Pro table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	30	24	2	4	40	74
2	Universidad Catolica	30	14	9	7	24	51
3	Macara	30	15	6	9	8	51
4	Aucas	30	14	8	8	5	50
5	LDU de Quito	30	13	7	10	7	46
6	Barcelona SC	30	11	11	8	7	44
7	Libertad	30	11	8	11	-1	41
8	Leones del Norte	30	10	9	11	-1	39
9	Guayaquil City FC	30	10	9	11	-3	39
10	Emelec	30	10	9	11	-9	39
11	Mushuc Runa SC	30	9	11	10	-3	38
12	Deportivo Cuenca	30	10	6	14	-12	36
13	Orense SC	30	9	6	15	-11	33
14	Tecnico Universitario	30	10	2	18	-14	32
15	Delfin SC	30	7	7	16	-12	28
16	Manta FC	30	5	6	19	-25	21
1	Independiente del Valle	31	25	2	4	41	77
2	Macara	31	16	6	9	9	54
3	Universidad Catolica	31	14	9	8	23	51
4	Aucas	32	14	8	10	3	50
5	LDU de Quito	31	14	7	10	8	49
6	Barcelona SC	30	11	11	8	7	44
7	Libertad	32	13	8	11	3	47
8	Guayaquil City FC	31	10	10	11	-3	40
9	Leones del Norte	32	10	10	12	-4	40
10	Emelec	31	10	9	12	-10	39
11	Mushuc Runa SC	32	9	12	11	-4	39
12	Deportivo Cuenca	31	10	7	14	-12	37
13	Orense SC	31	9	6	16	-12	33
14	Tecnico Universitario	31	10	3	18	-14	33
15	Delfin SC	32	8	8	16	-11	32
16	Manta FC	31	6	6	19	-24	24

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Independiente del Valle win, at 45.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.