Estadio Banco Guayaquil · Analysis updated 15:11 UTC
Independiente del Valle vs Manta FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Independiente del Valle and 1.22 for Manta FC, a combined total of 3.08. That distribution gives Independiente del Valle the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Independiente del Valle win
52.3% probability
Expected goals
1.86 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Independiente del Valle home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Manta FC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Independiente del Valle to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 23% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.86 goals for Independiente del Valle and 1.22 for Manta FC, a combined 3.08 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–08.6%
- 2–08.0%
- 1–26.4%
Recent form
Independiente del Valle
- 2026-09-25T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Gualaceo SC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Flamengo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Libertad · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Flamengo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Macara · 3-1 (W)
Manta FC
- 2026-09-21T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Orense SC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Aucas · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-08T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Emelec · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-02T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Macara · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-08-30T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Barcelona SC · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Independiente del Valle win, at 52.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.