Independiente F.b.c. vs Encarnación Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Independiente F.b.c. and 1.15 for Encarnación, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Encarnación the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

65.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.10 – 1.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Independiente F.b.c. home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Encarnación away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Independiente F.b.c. win34%

Draw29%

Encarnación win37%

Double chance 1X

63%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

66%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals66%

Over 2.5 goals39%

Over 3.5 goals19%

Both teams to score46%

Correct score

1–113.3%
0–112.1%
1–011.6%
0–010.5%
1–27.7%

Recent form

Independiente F.b.c.

2026-09-30T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Nacional Asuncion · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-25T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Carapeguá · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs 12 de Junio VH · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-14T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Encarnación · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-09T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Santani · 2-1 (W)

Encarnación

2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs 3 de Noviembre · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-19T19:30:00.000Z · H vs General Caballero · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Guairena FC · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-02T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Resistencia · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs SOL DE America · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-09-14T22:00:00.000Z · Independiente F.b.c. 1-0 Encarnación (Division Intermedia)
2026-05-23T20:00:00.000Z · Independiente F.b.c. 3-2 Encarnación (Division Intermedia)
2025-07-04T18:00:00.000Z · Independiente F.b.c. 0-3 Encarnación (Division Intermedia)
2025-03-28T21:00:00.000Z · Independiente F.b.c. 1-0 Encarnación (Division Intermedia)
2024-10-07T22:00:00.000Z · Independiente F.b.c. 2-2 Encarnación (Division Intermedia)
2024-07-01T20:45:00.000Z · Independiente F.b.c. 3-1 Encarnación (Division Intermedia)

Division Intermedia table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Deportivo Santani	29	18	3	8	22	57
2	General Caballero	29	17	5	7	21	56
3	12 de Junio VH	29	15	9	5	11	54
4	Paraguari AC	30	14	5	11	7	47
5	SOL DE America	30	10	15	5	7	45
6	Independiente F.b.c.	30	11	10	9	5	43
7	Sportivo Carapeguá	30	12	7	11	-6	43
8	Benjamín Aceval	29	12	6	11	4	42
9	Resistencia	29	10	9	10	0	39
10	Atlético Tembetary	30	10	7	13	-7	37
11	Deportivo Capiata	29	8	11	10	-3	35
12	Fernando De La Mora	29	9	7	13	-10	34
13	3 de Noviembre	30	7	9	14	-8	30
14	Guairena FC	30	7	8	15	-15	29
15	Tacuary	29	5	12	12	-14	27
16	Encarnación	30	7	5	18	-14	26

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.