Independiente F.b.c. vs General Caballero Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.57 expected goals for Independiente F.b.c. and 1.67 for General Caballero, a combined total of 3.24. That distribution gives General Caballero the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

63.7% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.57 – 1.67

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Independiente F.b.c. home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
General Caballero away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates General Caballero to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 36% / 23% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.57 goals for Independiente F.b.c. and 1.67 for General Caballero, a combined 3.24 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Independiente F.b.c. win36%

Draw23%

General Caballero win41%

Double chance 1X

60%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

64%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

1–110.3%
1–28.6%
2–18.1%
2–26.7%
0–16.5%

Recent form

Independiente F.b.c.

2026-09-30T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Nacional Asuncion · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-25T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Carapeguá · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs 12 de Junio VH · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-14T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Encarnación · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-09T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Santani · 2-1 (W)

General Caballero

2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Santani · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-05T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Fernando De La Mora · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-25T21:30:00.000Z · H vs 3 de Noviembre · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Paraguari AC · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Guairena FC · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Division Intermedia table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	General Caballero	28	17	5	6	22	56
2	Deportivo Santani	28	17	3	8	20	54
3	12 de Junio VH	28	14	9	5	9	51
4	Independiente F.b.c.	28	11	10	7	8	43
5	Benjamín Aceval	28	12	6	10	5	42
6	Sportivo Carapeguá	28	12	6	10	-5	42
7	SOL DE America	28	9	14	5	6	41
8	Paraguari AC	28	12	5	11	3	41
9	Resistencia	28	9	9	10	-1	36
10	Atlético Tembetary	28	10	6	12	-6	36
11	Fernando De La Mora	28	9	7	12	-8	34
12	Deportivo Capiata	28	7	11	10	-4	32
13	3 de Noviembre	28	7	8	13	-6	29
14	Guairena FC	28	7	7	14	-13	28
15	Tacuary	28	4	12	12	-15	24
16	Encarnación	28	6	4	18	-15	22

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.