Independiente F.b.c. vs Sportivo Carapeguá Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Independiente F.b.c. and 1.15 for Sportivo Carapeguá, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Independiente F.b.c. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

68.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.35 – 1.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Independiente F.b.c. home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sportivo Carapeguá away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Independiente F.b.c. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 27% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Independiente F.b.c. and 1.15 for Sportivo Carapeguá, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Independiente F.b.c. win41%

Draw27%

Sportivo Carapeguá win32%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

59%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals71%

Over 2.5 goals46%

Over 3.5 goals24%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

1–112.7%
1–011.1%
0–19.4%
2–18.6%
0–08.2%

Recent form

Independiente F.b.c.

2026-09-30T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Nacional Asuncion · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-25T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Carapeguá · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs 12 de Junio VH · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-14T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Encarnación · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-09T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Santani · 2-1 (W)

Sportivo Carapeguá

2026-10-02T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Capiata · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-25T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Independiente F.b.c. · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tacuary · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-15T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Tembetary · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-10T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Benjamín Aceval · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Division Intermedia table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	General Caballero	28	17	5	6	22	56
2	Deportivo Santani	28	17	3	8	20	54
3	12 de Junio VH	28	14	9	5	9	51
4	Independiente F.b.c.	28	11	10	7	8	43
5	Benjamín Aceval	28	12	6	10	5	42
6	Sportivo Carapeguá	28	12	6	10	-5	42
7	SOL DE America	28	9	14	5	6	41
8	Paraguari AC	28	12	5	11	3	41
9	Resistencia	28	9	9	10	-1	36
10	Atlético Tembetary	28	10	6	12	-6	36
11	Fernando De La Mora	28	9	7	12	-8	34
12	Deportivo Capiata	28	7	11	10	-4	32
13	3 de Noviembre	28	7	8	13	-6	29
14	Guairena FC	28	7	7	14	-13	28
15	Tacuary	28	4	12	12	-15	24
16	Encarnación	28	6	4	18	-15	22

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.